One of the limitations you're going to have using SQL Express 2014 is a 10GB limit on your relational database size.
You are showing a 8.15 GB database, and NCM is looking for 3.14 GB of free space. That's beyond the capabilities of your SQL product.
One thing you could do is the "Minimum" data transfer option. Before you do this, run a job in NCM to export your configuration files to a network share. Alternatively, you can grab your .config files manually and back them up yourself before the upgrade. If I remember correctly, it's something like C:\Program File (x86)\SolarWinds\Orion\NCM\Configs
Alternatively, you could run DB Maintenance and Purge jobs in NCM to shrink your DB size.
Your final option would be of course to upgrade your SQL instance to a licensed version without the limitations.
Good luck!
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